Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
PoliticsForeign PolicyU.S. x IranNuclearGeopoliticsIranKhameneiIran CeasefireTrumpnuclear dealIsrael x IranVanceRewards 50, 4.5, 100Peace Deal

Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Volume: $8.6MResolution: June 30, 2026

This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”. For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East. If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”. If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”. If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?

Yes: 32%No: 68%

958.6%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 47.3%Vol: $1.3M
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

16.4%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.8%Vol: $395K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Yes: 30%No: 70%

885.7%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 43.7%Vol: $485K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

7.1%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.4%Vol: $333K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

3.0%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $199K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

1.0%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.1%Vol: $886K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

18.4%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.9%Vol: $316K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

11.2%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.6%Vol: $276K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

1.0%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.1%Vol: $808K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

5.1%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.3%Vol: $251K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

Yes: 10%No: 90%

215.3%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 10.6%Vol: $344K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

1.0%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.1%Vol: $272K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?

Yes: 2%No: 98%

35.1%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 1.7%Vol: $267K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

1.0%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.1%Vol: $113K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?

Yes: 9%No: 92%

188.4%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 9.3%Vol: $1.2M
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

7.1%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.4%Vol: $249K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?

Yes: 4%No: 96%

77.9%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 3.8%Vol: $463K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

22.6%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 1.1%Vol: $386K
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Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

13.3%

Y/Y Gain

18d

Gain: 0.7%Vol: $167K
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