Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Volume: $20.0MResolution: October 10, 2026

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Prediction markets

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 8%No: 93%

24.7%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 8.1%Vol: $3.6M
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Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 8%No: 93%

24.7%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 8.1%Vol: $190K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

3.9%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 1.3%Vol: $1.3M
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Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 6%No: 94%

18.6%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 6.1%Vol: $2.0M
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Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.5%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.8%Vol: $528K
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Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 4%No: 96%

14.0%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 4.6%Vol: $642K
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Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

1.7%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.6%Vol: $656K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.0%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.7%Vol: $895K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.6%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.9%Vol: $1.1M
Trade on Polymarket

Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.0%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.7%Vol: $1.0M
Trade on Polymarket

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 4%No: 96%

13.3%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 4.4%Vol: $743K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.3%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.8%Vol: $686K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.0%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.7%Vol: $936K
Trade on Polymarket

Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 2%No: 98%

6.4%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 2.1%Vol: $807K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 10%No: 90%

33.2%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 10.9%Vol: $543K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

1.7%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.6%Vol: $834K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

1.4%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.5%Vol: $594K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

3.2%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 1.1%Vol: $1.3M
Trade on Polymarket

Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.3%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 0.8%Vol: $1.1M
Trade on Polymarket

Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Yes: 2%No: 98%

6.4%

Y/Y Gain

120d

Gain: 2.1%Vol: $580K
Trade on Polymarket

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