Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Prediction markets
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
0.5%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
20.5%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
0.3%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
0.4%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
0.5%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
0.4%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
1.3%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
0.7%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
0.4%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
2.2%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
0.3%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
0.5%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
0.1%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
7.6%
Y/Y Gain
187d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
0.3%
Y/Y Gain
187d