Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
GeopoliticsIran CeasefireIranLebanonIsraelIsrael x IranPeace Deal

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

Volume: $5.2MResolution: June 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.

Prediction markets

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

7d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $75K
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

60.7%

Y/Y Gain

7d

Gain: 1.2%Vol: $2.6M
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

7d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $1.5M
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Yes: 8%No: 93%

77.9%

Y/Y Gain

38d

Gain: 8.1%Vol: $944K
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?

Yes: 14%No: 86%

86.1%

Y/Y Gain

69d

Gain: 16.3%Vol: $9K
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?

Yes: 23%No: 78%

107.0%

Y/Y Gain

99d

Gain: 29.0%Vol: $1K
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Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?

Yes: 34%No: 66%

98.4%

Y/Y Gain

191d

Gain: 51.5%Vol: $10K
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