Israel closes its airspace by...?
PoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x IranIranIsraelRewards 50, 4.5, 20

Israel closes its airspace by...?

Volume: $26.4MResolution: May 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Prediction markets

Israel closes its airspace by May 8?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $495K
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Israel closes its airspace by May 31?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $2.5M
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Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $4.8M
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Israel closes its airspace by May 24?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $571K
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Israel closes its airspace by June 15?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $5.7M
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Israel closes its airspace by June 8?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $1.1M
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Israel closes its airspace by June 9?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $1.3M
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Israel closes its airspace by June 10?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $1.0M
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Israel closes its airspace by June 11?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $453K
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Israel closes its airspace by June 12?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $148K
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Israel closes its airspace by June 13?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $117K
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Israel closes its airspace by June 14?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $787K
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Israel closes its airspace by July 15?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $1.8M
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Israel closes its airspace by July 31?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $3.3M
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Israel closes its airspace by July 7?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $200K
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Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Yes: 20%No: 80%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 25.0%Vol: $782K
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Israel closes its airspace by July 24?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $821K
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Israel closes its airspace by August 15?

Yes: 11%No: 89%

410.1%

Y/Y Gain

11d

Gain: 12.4%Vol: $617K
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