Iran leadership change by...?
PoliticsIranIran RegimeGeopoliticsMojtabaayatollahKhameneiMojtaba KhameneiKhamenei outMojtaba out

Iran leadership change by...?

Volume: $22.4MResolution: December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Prediction markets

Iran leadership change by September 30?

Yes: 6%No: 95%

37.3%

Y/Y Gain

57d

Gain: 5.8%Vol: $313K
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Iran leadership change by July 31?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $1.6M
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Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

Yes: 26%No: 75%

37.9%

Y/Y Gain

330d

Gain: 34.2%Vol: $181K
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Iran leadership change by August 31?

Yes: 2%No: 98%

32.5%

Y/Y Gain

27d

Gain: 2.4%Vol: $622K
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Iran leadership change by March 13?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

149d

Iran leadership change by March 31?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $3.2M
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Iran leadership change by April 30?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $5.0M
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Iran leadership change by December 31?

Yes: 16%No: 85%

44.9%

Y/Y Gain

149d

Gain: 18.3%Vol: $3.7M
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Iran leadership change by May 31?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $3.4M
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Iran leadership change by June 30?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $4.4M
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