Iran leader end of 2026?
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Prediction markets
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
20.5%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.6%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.4%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
58.7%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.6%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
11.9%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1.5%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.6%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1.7%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
2.1%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1.7%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mohammad Pakpour be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.0%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
3.6%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Ali Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.0%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1.5%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1.0%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
0.2%
Y/Y Gain
88d
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1.5%
Y/Y Gain
88d