Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?
ClaudeBig TechanthropicClaude MythosAITechTrump

Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Volume: $4.9MResolution: July 2, 2026

On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to US customers by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026. For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility within the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to US customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Prediction markets

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $142K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $396K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes: 95%No: 5%

1860.5%

Y/Y Gain

1d

Gain: 5.1%Vol: $1.7M
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $61K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $22K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?

Yes: 100%No: 0%

0.4%

Y/Y Gain

184d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $217K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?

Yes: 100%No: 0%

3.0%

Y/Y Gain

31d

Gain: 0.3%Vol: $315K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

Yes: 100%No: 0%

1.2%

Y/Y Gain

62d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $238K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $676K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $89K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $63K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?

Yes: 100%No: 0%

12.8%

Y/Y Gain

10d

Gain: 0.4%Vol: $84K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $172K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.0%

Y/Y Gain

0d

Gain: 0.0%Vol: $329K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?

Yes: 100%No: 0%

9.7%

Y/Y Gain

17d

Gain: 0.5%Vol: $215K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?

Yes: 99%No: 1%

203.0%

Y/Y Gain

2d

Gain: 1.1%Vol: $65K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?

Yes: 100%No: 1%

61.1%

Y/Y Gain

3d

Gain: 0.5%Vol: $49K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?

Yes: 100%No: 0%

21.4%

Y/Y Gain

6d

Gain: 0.4%Vol: $26K
Trade on Polymarket

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?

Yes: 100%No: 0%

16.0%

Y/Y Gain

8d

Gain: 0.4%Vol: $25K
Trade on Polymarket

Want to see all prediction markets sorted by return?

Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? | PolyEdge | PolyEdge