Brazil Presidential Election

BrazilGlobal ElectionsWorld ElectionsWorldPoliticsMacro Election 2Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election

Volume: $98.6MResolution: October 4, 2026

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Prediction markets

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.5%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $12.6M

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Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 47%No: 54%

278.3%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 86.9%Vol: $6.3M

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Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.1%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.7%Vol: $4.5M

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Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 2%No: 98%

7.9%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 2.5%Vol: $5.7M

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Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 1%No: 99%

2.1%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.7%Vol: $7.4M

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Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.5%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $9.5M

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Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.8%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.3%Vol: $9.9M

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Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 15%No: 85%

57.2%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 17.9%Vol: $6.9M

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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 27%No: 73%

115.7%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 36.1%Vol: $6.6M

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Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 2%No: 98%

5.2%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 1.6%Vol: $4.0M

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Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 2%No: 98%

5.0%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 1.6%Vol: $3.6M

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Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 4%No: 96%

12.1%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 3.8%Vol: $3.3M

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Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

1.4%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.5%Vol: $3.4M

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Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.5%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $7.4M

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Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.5%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $4.4M

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Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.8%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.3%Vol: $1.7M

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Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes: 0%No: 100%

0.5%

Y/Y Gain

114d

Gain: 0.2%Vol: $1.7M

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Brazil Presidential Election | PolyEdge | PolyEdge